Postscript To “The Coming Economic Flood”

Rev 18:1-10

After this I saw another angel coming down from heaven, having great authority, and the earth was made bright with his glory. And he called out with a mighty voice, “Fallen, fallen is Babylon the great! She has become a dwelling place for demons, a haunt for every unclean spirit, a haunt for every unclean bird, a haunt for every unclean and detestable beast. For all nations have drunk the wine of the passion of her sexual immorality, and the kings of the earth have committed immorality with her, and the merchants of the earth have grown rich from the power of her luxurious living.” Then I heard another voice from heaven saying, “Come out of her, my people, lest you take part in her sins, lest you share in her plagues; for her sins are heaped high as heaven, and God has remembered her iniquities. Pay her back as she herself has paid back others, and repay her double for her deeds; mix a double portion for her in the cup she mixed.  As she glorified herself and lived in luxury, so give her a like measure of torment and mourning, since in her heart she says, ‘I sit as a queen, I am no widow, and mourning I shall never see.’  For this reason her plagues will come in a single day, death and mourning and famine, and she will be burned up with fire; for mighty is the Lord God who has judged her.” And the kings of the earth, who committed sexual immorality and lived in luxury with her, will weep and wail over her when they see the smoke of her burning. 10 They will stand far off, in fear of her torment, and say, “Alas! Alas! You great city, you mighty city, Babylon! For in a single hour your judgment has come.”

In my book, The Coming Economic Flood, I recounted that God gave me some visions and the very first vision, the 911 terrorist attack on World Trade Center, was the judgment on the symbol of the Babylonian system.  That financial system is unmistakably the present capitalism in which all the global economies are engaged in globalized trade led by the United States with her reserve currency. Just as heaven is sometimes depicted as a city – the New Jerusalem – or sometimes as the new heaven descending on the new earth, likewise Babylon can be depicted as the leading financial city or the whole globalised system of governments, global businesses and major seaports cum financial centers.

It is no coincidence then that New York City was selected among several cities to site the Statue of Liberty eventually. (Watch the videos for the amazing history of this statue.) All the excesses of sins of pleasure-seeking (sex, pornography, sexual perversion and other indulgences) and money-making originate from this city and proliferate throughout the whole world. Presently the city has the highest coronavirus infection of all cities in the US and also faces one of the worst riots in history.  It is no coincidence again that the newspapers described the city as burning. The United Nations and World Bank are also headquartered in this city. New York City perfectly fits the description of the city mentioned in Rev 18:1-10. (Watch the following videos for the amazing “coincidences”.)

Due to the Fed Reserve still being able to get away with printing much money to prop up the financial system at this moment, we will continue to watch whether she will eventually go up in smoke and make every government and merchant weep.

Considering all the above evidence and current events, is New York City the Babylon of the end times ?

https://www.youtubetrimmer.com/view/?v=JX6S0ZSbtQ0&start=536&end=1191

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4QevlCDr-0Y

 

The Derivatives Bubble

I hope to provide a simple summary of what I understand about financial derivatives from various good articles and YouTube videos in the net. I hope to explain my God given conviction of an economic flood or reset that the world will face soon with current observation of events in the financial markets. Will the pandemic be the catalyst that cause it through the unraveling of the derivatives bubble ?

The real cause of the 2008 financial crisis was the proliferation of unregulated derivatives during that time. These are complicated financial products that derive their value from an underlying asset or index.  Let us look at the housing mortgage backed securities (MBS) as the asset example.

The US housing mortgages were sold to Fannie Mae to relieve the banks of more funds for lending.  Fannie Mae resold them in a package of other mortgages in the secondary market.  A hedge fund or investment bank then divided the MBS into different portions because of different default risks and then combined with other similar risk levels of other MBS into a tranche and resold that tranche to other hedge funds.  Then the mortgage defaults happened and caused the 2008 crisis. These financial products were so complicated that nobody knew which part of the MBS was toxic, so nobody knew the actual value of the MBS.  The secondary market shut down and banks and hedge funds were unable to sell the derivatives that were declining in value. Soon, banks stopped lending to each other altogether to conserve cash.

This financial derivatives market is complicated and unregulated.  The value of these products are difficult to ascertain.  It probably started as a financial tool to mitigate risks but has now turned into one monstrous gambling game.  Since the 2008 financial crisis, nothing much has changed as far as regulation is concerned. The speculation in the financial derivatives has risen to new heights as a result.  Presently, by some estimates, the derivatives bubble can be anywhere between USD 600 trillion and USD 1.4 quadrillion.  The exposure of the major banks to this bubble is staggering. Warren Buffet called these derivatives financial weapons of mass destruction. And IMF stated that the Deutsche Bank is the biggest threat to the global financial system.  Watch the following video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSsH2dsW5-c

After The Pandemic, What’s Next ?

The following article on Foreign Policy website gave the predictions of 12 leading thinkers from around the world concerning the global order after the pandemic.

These are the main predictions in the authors’ own words that I gleaned from the article :

  1. The pandemic will strengthen the state and reinforce nationalism. Governments of all types will adopt emergency measures to manage the crisis, and many will be loath to relinquish these new powers when the crisis is over.
  2. The coronavirus pandemic could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of economic globalization.
  3. The COVID-19 pandemic will not fundamentally alter global economic directions. It will only accelerate a change that had already begun: a move away from U.S.-centric globalization to a more China-centric globalization.
  4. Given the economic damage and social collapse that is unfolding, it is hard to see anything other than a reinforcement of the movement toward nationalism, great-power rivalry, strategic decoupling, and the like.
  5. COVID-19 is undermining the basic tenets of global manufacturing. Companies will now rethink and shrink the multi-step, multi-country supply chains that dominate production today. Governments will intervene forcing what they consider strategic industries to have domestic backup plans and reserves. Profitability will fall, but supply stability should rise.
  6. Given the scale of financial market losses the world has experienced since February, companies are likely to come out of this pandemic decidedly gun-shy about the just-in-time model and about globally dispersed production. The result could be a dramatic new stage in global capitalism, in which supply chains are brought closer to home and filled with redundancies to protect against future disruption. That may cut into companies’ near-term profits but render the entire system more resilient.
  7. I would expect many countries will have difficulty recovering from the crisis, with state weakness and failed states becoming an even more prevalent feature of the world.

If failed states and partial deglobalisation are a reality after the pandemic, let Christendom in each country discern how it will affect them and prepare to weather it. Because not all will be living in cities that make their living by the sea. Rev 18:17.  Or living in cities that are major manufacturing hubs.  Rev 18:15.

Zeph 2:3

Seek the Lord, all you humble of the land,
you who do what he commands.
Seek righteousness, seek humility;
perhaps you will be sheltered
on the day of the Lord’s anger.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/20/world-order-after-coroanvirus-pandemic/

The Coming Economic Flood (Update)

After Sep 2015 in which USD 11 trillion dollars were wiped out of the global stock markets and the markets recovered strongly from then,  I sought the Lord whether the economic flood would be the next.  (I was given the vision of 911 attack in Sep 2001, the vision of the global recession in Sep 2008, and the global market crisis in Sep 2015 as recounted in my book, The Coming Economic Flood.)

(http://www.jcmanifesto.org/when-will-the-global-financial-system-finally-collapse/ )

I was told to read on the parable of the vineyard and it was only after three attempts in failing to recover the rent proceeds from the tenants that the landowner finally came and destroyed all these wicked tenants.   I am now wondering if this pandemic is the catalyst that will cause the economic flood.  Whether this coming flood is the final flood that causes the global economy to collapse,  it is definitely unprecedented in history.  (God is ever so patient and He may give some more time for some to come out of Babylon before the plagues of mourning, death and famine hit.  2 Chron 7:13-14.)

With many countries in lockdown for weeks now, if not months of partial lockdown,  it is clear that their economies will suffer recession.   But looking at the various problems that are already surfacing before the end of 2019,  the likelihood of it escalating to a depression is very probable.

Here is an article that believes the corporate debt reckoning is coming.

Quote

“Total U.S. non-financial corporate debt sits at just under $10 trillion, a record 47% of GDP. One in six U.S. companies is now a zombie, meaning their interest expenses exceed their earnings before interest and taxes. As of year-end 2019, the percentage of listed companies in the U.S. losing money over 12 months sat close to 40%. In the 12 months to November, non-financial S&P 500 cash balances had declined by 11%, the largest percentage decline since at least 1980…With economic uncertainty at an extreme and yields spiking, who is going to lend to zombies right now? Exacerbating that problem, we are now at the start of the debt-maturity wall we’ve warned about for years. Roughly $840 billion of bonds rated BBB or below in the U.S. are set to come due this year…

Corporate debt was the defining excess of the past decade’s bull run. Buybacks were funded by debt — over the past half decade, S&P 500 companies have issued $2.5 trillion in debt to afford $2.7 trillion in buybacks. Debt has subsidized the skyrocketing salaries of CEOsCheap debt has enabled private equity to take over and financialize Main Street. How severe the consequences will be obviously depends on how long COVID-19 keeps the world locked down. However, a reckoning with debt-fueled corporate greed is coming, regardless of Fed bond buying or government stimulus.”

Unquote

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/corporate-debt-reckoning-coming

Here is another article tracking the unemployment figures right now and comparing with the Great Depression in the 1930s.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/03/recession-depression-data-coronavirus

Whether it is a great recession or a depression,  these are times of testing whether we are truly wise and faithful servants to other servants or sheep to the least of the brothers.  All praise and glory to our Lord.

 

The Probable Reason For Social Unrest Around The World

The following article probably explained why the masses are not enjoying more jobs and higher wages despite the bull run of stock markets.  We are now seeing the social unrest in several countries around the world –  France, Lebanon, Chile, Hong Kong and Spain.

“The one constant across the media-political spectrum is an unblinking focus on the stock market as a barometer of the national economy: every major media outlet from the New York Times to Fox News prominently displays stock market action, and TV news anchors’ expressions reflect the media’s emotional promotion of the market as the end all to be all: if stocks rose, the anchors are smiling and chirpy, and if the market fell then their expressions are downcast and dour.

This cheerleading of the stock market is based on an implicit assumption that the rising stock market raises all boats: a rising market is assumed to reflect an expansion of sales and profits that trickle down to the masses in higher wages, more jobs and rising 401K retirement accounts.

The reality is starkly different: the vast majority of the gains generated by a rising stock market flow to the top 10% households who own 93% of all financial assets, and the gains within the top 10% are highly concentrated in the top .01% of financiers, super-wealthy families and corporate managers who have reaped the vast majority of the past decade of stock market gains. The 1% grabbed 82% of all wealth created in 2017 and 2018 and 2019.  America’s richest 1% now own as much wealth as the middle and lower classes combined…As my friend Adam T recently observed : when we cheer the rising stock market, we’re celebrating the super-rich getting even richer. Why are we celebrating an unprecedented widening of wealth inequality that erodes democracy (because the super-wealthy buy political influence) and the social contract (as the vast majority of wealth and power flow to the top .01%)?

Soaring wealth inequality is extremely destabilizing politically, socially and economically : much of the social unrest breaking out around the world can be traced to the political, social and financial disenfranchisement of the masses by super-wealthy elites.

Economically, soaring inequality concentrates and capital and power in the hands of the few, creating fertile ground for cartels and monopolies which raise costs without generating better services or more jobs. This dynamic is easily visible in the US.

The US only pretends to have free markets :  From plane tickets to cellphone bills, monopoly power costs American consumers billions of dollars a year. Politically, the 90% who are losing ground seek political redress, generating tension in a political system dominated by the super-wealthy. Since the political machinery is controlled by the elite, the bottom 90%’s efforts to gain political redress will fail: Medicare for All (to take one example of many) is just an expansion of rapacious sickcare cartels that further concentrate wealth and power in the hands of the few at the expense of the many.”

– Charles Hugh Smith.

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2019/11/stock-market-cheerleading-why-do-we.html

In James 5:1-5,  it is mentioned that God will make right this injustice of exploiting the poor workers by the wealthy in the last days.  Will this development be a sign of the coming economic collapse ?  Hong Kong, being one of the world’s major seaports cum financial centers, will be among those who make their living by the sea and will weep when the Babylonian system is destroyed and all wealth is destroyed.  Rev 18:17.

The Last Four Empires In The End Times

The traditional interpretation of Daniel chapter 2 and 7 is that they are dealing with the same empires.  In Chapter 2, we know that the empires were that of Babylon, Persia, Greece and Rome.

But here are the reasons why the four beasts mentioned in Daniel chapter 7 cannot be referring to these same ancient empires :

  1. Daniel 7:12 mentioned that the first 3 empires will survive the destruction of the empire of the Antichrist. Babylon and Medo-Persia no longer existed.
  2. When Daniel received the interpretation of the vision, Daniel 7:17 clearly stated that these 4 beasts are empires which will arise in the future.  So Babylon could not be the first beast as Daniel was already living under the Babylonian empire at her height of glory.
  3. Daniel chapter 8 mentioned that the ram represented the kings of Media and Persia and the goat represented the kingdom of Greece. So the Bible will be terribly mixed up if the bear and leopard are used to represent these 2 same ancient empires.
  4. All these 4 beasts are apparently mentioned in Rev 13 and it is a single vision starting from Rev 12 to 14.   The vision starts from the birth of the Messiah to His defeat of the last beast.  When the Messiah came,  3 of the ancient empires of Babylon, Persia and Greece had already come and gone.

What are the four empires in the end times ?    Were some already here and have lost dominion ?  Do we have enough evidence to make conjecture about the existence of these empires now ?

I have read of some conjectures made by several ministers and theologians.  But this is the conjecture I believe in :

  1. The first beast, lion, was the British Empire.  The modern day symbol of the British Empire is a lion.   It ruled some 23% of the world’s population or 412 million at its height.  It was the largest empire in history.  The eagles’ wings were plucked off the lion and America gained her independence from Great Britain in 1776.  The symbol of America is an eagle.
  2. The second beast, bear, was the former Soviet Union.   The socialist empire, consisting of 15 republics,  existed from 1922 to 1991.  It was governed centrally by one single Communist Party from Moscow, the capital of the largest republic, Russia.    The modern day symbol of Russia is the bear.  The bear has 3 ribs in its mouth which may signify that Russia may try to retake 3 other republics again.   It has ambition to retake Ukraine and possibly another 2 states.
  3. The third beast, leopard, may be Germany. Germany had always tried to unite Europe.   The reign of Hitler from 1923 to 1945 was referred to as the Third Reich.  Hitler imagined his dictatorial regime was the successor to two great German empires.  The First Reich was the Holy Roman Empire ruled by Charlemagne.  And the Second Reich was the German Empire under Otto Van Bismark who ruled from 1870 to 1919.  Though the symbol of Germany is not the leopard but during World War 2,  she fought ferociously like a leopard.  Their most formidable weapon was the leopard tank.   Presently Germany is already dominating the European Union.  Is this the Fourth Reich ?   Or will a political union of 4 European nations arise with Germany as the leading state in the very near future as signified by this leopard beast with 4 heads and wings of a bird ?  The unofficial symbol of France is a rooster.

If the third beast is already here,  then the coming of the final beast, the Antichrist, is very near.  Will the European monetary union break up to cause a global economic collapse, and a new political cum monetary union arise under the Antichrist ?

Crypto-Currency And The One World Currency

(Summarizing an article by Tyler Durden on zerohedge.com and highlighting his suggestion on the possible future of crypto-currency to be used for the one world currency.   https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-22/did-imf-reveal-cryptocurrency-new-world-order-end-game)

There are a few things to know about crypto-currency:

  1. It is backed by nothing.  Anyone can create it out of thin air identical to the well-known Bitcoin.   If anyone can create, then there is no intrinsic value to the technology.  So literally thousands of such currencies can be created.
  2. In the event of a grid down or an internet lock-down (as it has occurred in the past in nations under crisis), the currency can be rendered useless because the blockchain ledger is no longer accessible.
  3. The amount of time and energy required to accumulate these digital currencies seem counterproductive in light of the fact that they might not be there when we actually need them. Trading with private wallets also make no sense because running into someone in the community with the same is very slim.
  4. The only attributes that made Bitcoin valuable are its branding and the amount of hype that is generated around it. Earlier, one more valuable characteristic is the supposed anonymity but now we know that any crypto-currency based on a block-chain ledger is highly traceable.
  5. What is happening to the boom and bust of crypto-currencies now can be likened to the Dutch Tulip mania.

As precious metals alternative system can be a threat to the current economic environment of fiat currencies,  Bitcoin and its likes can distract such attempt.

“In 1988, The Economist, a globalist publication, “predicted” that a global currency system would be launched in the year 2018.  It is now clear that crypto and the block-chain are that system.  This system would eventually use the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights basket as a kind of bridge to a one world currency, which they referred to as the “Phoenix”. Though some people claim that the SDR itself is not a currency, globalists apparently disagree.

Mohamed El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO, praised the idea of using the SDR as a world currency mechanism and as a means to counter “populism,” reiterating the plan outlined in The Economist in 1988.

In The Economist article, it is also hinted that the role of the U.S. as an economic center for the world and the role of the dollar as world reserve currency will have to be diminished in order to clear a path for the new world order system. We see this already taking place now, as we verge on an economic crisis which could easily collapse equity markets, bond markets, as well as the reserve status of the dollar itself.

Lagarde’s latest piece is written like a sales pitch, selling the idea of central bank crypto not to central bankers, but to the financial media. The media will undoubtedly run with the talking points Lagarde suggests and regurgitate them in a blaze of articles as to why global crypto controlled by the IMF is the solution to all our fiscal problems.

The very core of the movement toward global crypto, I believe, is the destruction of anonymity in trade through a “cashless society”. When all trade is watched, all trade can be controlled. Beyond this, by monitoring trade transactions on a macro-scale, globalists can also, in a way, monitor mass psychology and predict public behaviour to a point.

Lagarde notes specifically in her article that anonymity from government oversight is unacceptable. She argues that any central bank cryptocurrency will have to ensure that private exchange is limited, and that centralized surveillance of transactions is warranted and necessary. What she of course fails to mention is that blockchain technology is already set up for government surveillance. It always has been. Not only this, but the very fabric of the blockchain requires that transactions are added to the ledger in order for the system to function. There is a built-in excuse for surveillance.

The only question is how exactly the IMF plans to attach the SDR basket to a crypto framework. This is not specifically described in Lagarde’s paper. I expect that this will not be a process of slow adaptations. Instead, it will be introduced swiftly in the midst of public panic.

The “everything bubble” created by central banks over the past decade is ready to pop. The Federal Reserve in particular has been enthusiastic about cutting off all stimulus measures, dumping assets from their balance sheet and raising interest rates into economic weakness during the worst corporate and consumer debt environment since 2008.

I suggest that the IMF already has a cryptocurrency mechanism ready to replace the dollar as world reserve, and that it will be infused into the SDR basket at the height of the coming crash. The fact that the IMF has been introducing central bank crypto talking points over the past year indicates to me that the crash is imminent.” – Tyler Durden.

The Impending Euro-zone Financial Crisis

The following article gives an easy-to-understand explanation of the impending financial crisis faced by the Eurozone without any solution in sight.

As we have witnessed in the last six or seven years,  Greece has received up to 4 bailouts.  The next few debtor nations – Italy, Spain and Portugal – have bigger debt problems than Greece which will similarly threaten the collapse of the euro.

Unless these debts are forgiven, the bailouts of all these debtor nations will continue unabated. And it will not be possible to continue such bailouts without any repercussion.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-05-30/why-eurozone-and-euro-are-both-doomed

 

The World Has Gone Mad And Irresponsible

The global economy no longer grows as a result of industrial production and services expansion and almost all economies do not act responsibly to balance the fiscal budget anymore.

The article by Peak Prosperity explained how money printing out of thin air is used all the time to solve all economic woes at the moment and running budget deficit and not balancing budget is now the new normal.

https://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/113383/what-could-pop-everything-bubble

“This is the lesson of the past eight years: if a problem can be solved by creating new money and buying assets, then central banks will solve that problem.

Problem: stock market is declining. Solution: create new money and buy, buy, buy stock index funds. Problem solved! Market stops falling and quickly rebounds as “central banks have our backs.”

Problem: interest rates are inhibiting lending and growth. Solution: create a few trillion units of currency and buy enough sovereign bonds to drop interest rates to near-zero.

Problem: nobody’s left who can afford to buy the new nosebleed-priced flats that underpin China’s miracle-grow economy. Solution: create new currency, lend it to local government agencies who then buy the empty flats.

Problem: stagnant employment and deflation. Solution: create a trillion in new currency, buy a trillion in new government bonds that then fund infrastructure projects, i.e. bridges to nowhere.

And so on. Any problem that can be solved by creating a few trillion out of thin air and buying assets will be solved.  The mechanism to solve these problems—creating currency out of nothing—is like a perpetual motion machine: there are no intrinsic limits on the amount of new money that can created at near-zero interest, as the interest payments can be funded by new money.

Even better, the central bank (the Federal Reserve) buys Treasury bonds with the new currency that generate income, which is then returned to the Treasury: a perpetual-motion money machine!

The policy of creating trillions in new currency and buying trillions in assets has inflated an everything bubble, a bubble in all the asset classes being supported or purchased by central banks and their proxies.

Many observers wonder what, if anything, could pop the everything bubble.”

The article gave 3 reasons which could be the catalyst to pop this everything bubble.

  1. For non-tradable sectors of the economy, it is already running red hot and printing money will not cool it.
  2. Social Disorder. Soaring wealth-income inequality will come to a head sooner or later.
  3. Fragmentation Of The Elites. The disappearing middle class will be a major concern very soon.

The Coming Collapse Of China’s Ponzi Scheme Economy

A very well written article by a financial columnist of South China Morning Post, Mr Jake Van Der Kamp, explaining the mechanics of a ponzi scheme economy of China.

Using example of steel production as representative of all manufacturing industries,  the article explained this way :

“Why is so much steel needed?

Simple. It is needed to build more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways and bridges so that more ships can be built to carry more iron ore to more ports and thence along more rails and bridges to more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways …

What we have here, in short, is a giant Ponzi scheme. In a Ponzi scheme you pay out the winnings of the first entrants with what others later pay into it.

As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses.

In this case you justify production with demand based purely on more production. As long as you keep pushing production up everything looks fine. At its peak in 2014 China turned out 30 times more cement than the United States, and the latest production figures are only a smidgen less than 2014’s.

Command systems may be good at deciding where to direct economic effort in wartime but they are hopeless in peacetime at deciding when to stop and do something else.

They just keep going down the same old track and then what you get is economic cancer, uncontrollable growth.”

You can read more in the following link.

http://www.scmp.com/news/article/2108442/my-prediction-coming-collapse-chinas-ponzi-scheme-economy