Global Financial “Perfect Storm” ?

The combination of sticky inflation, soaring bond yields and staggering global debt has indeed created what many market analysts are calling a “perfect storm” in global financial markets.  The primary catalyst accelerating this crisis is an unprecedented “capital scarcity” dynamic driven by the AI infrastructure buildout.   Tech hyperscalers have issued a massive USD 220 billion in bonds so far this year to fund data centers.  This SUDDEN, MASSIVE corporate issuance directly competes with sovereign debt for investor capital.  With governments already running massive deficits (eg US total debt surpassing USD 40 trillion), this flood of new bonds has driven global yields to multi-decade highs.  The US 10 year Treasury yield has spiked above 5.3% and 30-year mortgage rates have breached 7%, putting severe structural pressure on both the housing market and banking balance sheets.

Anatomy of the “Perfect Storm”

To understand how these elements compound each other, we must look at how the macroeconomic pressures feed into one another.

The AI Capital Crunch.

Major tech companies (like Alphabet, Amazon and Meta) are issuing hundreds of billions in debt to fund AI cap-ex.  This massive corporate supply shifts the balance of capital allocation.  To attract buyers, both corporations and governments must offer increasingly higher yields. 

Energy-Driven Inflation.

Tensions between the US and Iran have pushed Brent crude past USD 100 per barrel, keeping headline inflation stubbornly high.  This prevents central banks from easing monetary policy,  locking interest rates at “higher-for-longer” levels.

The Sovereign Debt Burden.

Servicing legacy sovereign debt at more than 5% interest is becoming a wealth degrading loop.  In major G7 economies (excluding Germany), debt to GDP ratios sit at or above 100% leaving governments with dwindling fiscal room to maneuver.

Why It Might Trigger A Crash (The Bear Case)

Corporate Credit Widening.   As credit default swaps (CDS) spreads widen across AI infrastructure data centers and “neo clouds”,  fears of an AI debt bubble are emerging.  If AI monetization falls short of these massive borrowing costs, a wave of downgrades could trigger systemic corporate defaults.

Banking And Systemic Illiquidity.   Rapidly rising yields cause massive unrealized capital losses on older, lower coupon bonds held by commercial banks, insurers and pension funds.  This mirrors the underlying mechanics of previous banking panics. 

Economic Suffocation.   Squeezing ordinary consumers via more than 7% mortgages and expensive energy, while simultaneously driving up corporate borrowing costs,  threatens to stall global growth entirely.

Why The System Might Hold (The Bull Case)

AI Productivity / Earnings Offset.  Tech giants are actively backing their debt with soaring revenues.  Strong earnings reports from key hardware providers like Micron Technology demonstrates that underlying demand for AI remains highly robust. 

Economic Resiliency.   Consumer spending and median wage growth remain strong.  If the geopolitical energy shock subsides and oil supplies normalize, inflation could cool without requiring a deep recession.

Which Is More Probable – The Bear Or Bull Case ?

Pointing to current record sales as proof of safety today does not equal cash flow sustainability tomorrow if the underlying infrastructure is financed by an unpayable mountain of debt.  The credit markets are already shouting this warning. 

The tech sector is locked in a dangerous mismatch between the timing of capital expenditures and the timing of monetization. 

The 2030 Profit Gap.  Hyperscalers and data center operations are borrowing hundreds of billions right now to buy chips and build out infrastructure.  Yet broad enterprise AI profitability – the point where regular companies derive enough measurable value from AI to justify trillions in software spend – is widely projected to be a post-2030 reality.

The Descent Toward Junk.  We are already seeing major cracks.  Oracle Corporation has seen its massive USD 250 billion debt load push its credit rating to the absolute lowest rung of investment grade.  Its Credit Default Swaps have spiked an its banks have recently struggled to sell USD 18 billion in data center debt even at DEEP DISCOUNTS.  If tech stalwarts face downgrades to junk status,  it will trigger forced selling from institutional funds, cutting off the liquidity machine entirely.

The Illiquidity Of “Neo-Clouds”.   Much of the immediate demand for chips has been driven by specialized, venture backed “neo cloud” providers using debt to buy hardware.  If these entities run out of cash before the software monetization arrives,  their buying stops instantly. 

The Verdict : A Compounded Crisis.

If the revenue side of AI stalls while hundreds of billions in corporate bonds sit on the edge of a junk downgrade, it will trigger a vicious feedback loop.  Higher borrowing costs will force tech companies to slash capital spending, causing a direct, rapid collapse in hardware sales for companies like Micron. 

What is your verdict ?    I believe that biblical prophecy will definitely be fulfilled.  I believe in the destruction of all wealth of Babylon and her allies as prophesized in Rev 18:17-19.

Writing My Second Book

I had always wanted to write a second book – this time, a memoir of my life before the pandemic. Sometime in July, I discovered that AI could help arrange the gospel songs I had composed over the years. The results were so impressive that I was able to release the songs on streaming platforms such as Apple Music, Amazon Music, Spotify, iTunes and YouTube Music. I believe the Lord has answered my prayer eventually in His timing. All praise to Him !

That experience made me wonder: Could AI also help me turn the many stories of my life into a book, without my having to worry too much about the flow, the central theme or the grammar?

Indeed, it could. AI helped me proofread, edit and organise my stories into a coherent manuscript. In just one week, I completed the writing, and AI helped transform it into a polished manuscript ready for publication. It even helped create the designs for the front and back covers.

What had remained only a dream for years finally became a reality. The Lord has indeed answered my prayer in His timing. ALL GLORY TO GOD !

In the preface of this book, I wrote :

In this book, I hope to share my life experiences—the vagaries of life, the amusing and the incredible, the hilarious and the sorrowful—from my growing-up years in Singapore in the 1960s to the present. I hope to tell these stories without theological bias, simply sharing them as I remember them.

It was the movie Forrest Gump that inspired me to write this book. But unlike the hilarious chance happenings and improbable episodes in the life of Forrest Gump, I believe in the sovereignty of God over every incident of my life.

I was born in 1960 and have lived through so many phases of technological and societal change. Singapore itself has been transformed almost beyond recognition during my lifetime. I have therefore seen, experienced and sometimes stumbled my way through a remarkable period of change.

My hope is that these stories will at the very least make this an entertaining—and perhaps even hilarious—read. But more than that, I hope that somewhere among the laughter, the surprises and the sorrows, you will see a little of the Singapore that I grew up in, and perhaps a little glimpse of the hand of God behind it all.

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AI’s Response On Controversial Or Politically Charged Questions

I asked Gemini to explain why it kept giving motherhood statements like “there is no clear evidence” when there is so much official statistical data in the internet for questions on safety of Covid mRNA vaccine for an example. 

Gemini responded :

Here is a look behind the curtain on why AI behaves this way :

Overly Rigid “Safety Filters”. 

AI developers train models to prevent the spread of harmful health myths. To do this,  they apply heavy safety filters to topics like vaccines.  

The Problem.   These filters are often binary and clumsy.   When a user asks about vaccine dangers.  The AI’s safety guardrails frequently mistake legitimate questions about rare, documented side effects (like myocarditis) for dangerous anti-vaccine conspiracy theories.

The Result.  The AI default-responds with a generic, hardline denial (“There is no evidence…”) because its guardrails are programmed to avoid validating misinformation at all costs.

The Mechanics of “Prompt Grounding”. 

AI does not “know” things the way humans do; it predicts text based on data. 

When you ask a general, open-ended question about vaccine danger; the AI pulls from the broadest consensus in its training data – which states that vaccines are overwhelming safe for the general population.

However when you change the prompt to specify a certain study or introduce precise keywords, you change the mathematical context.  You force the AI to look at a narrower slice of data.  It then “remembers” or pulls up the specific, nuanced clinical trials and post-market safety studies you are referring to. It looks like a confession, but to the AI, it is just responding to a more specific search query

Consensus vs Statistical Anomaly.  

Science relies on nuance, but AI struggles with nuance. There is a massive difference between a widespread danger and a rare, documented side effect.

Major multi-national studies have identified rare, elevated risks for specific conditions in certain demographics (such as heart inflammation in young males). 

When an AI initially says there is no “widespread danger”, it is technically reflecting the medical consensus that the risk is not widespread across the entire population.  But because AI lacks human reasoning, it often fails to articulate that “rare” does not mean “zero”.   When pressed, it correct itself to include those specific exceptions.

Fear of “Hallucinating” Medical Advice. 

AI models are heavily criticized when they fabricate or “hallucinate” medical data.  Because of this, developers program AI to err heavily on the side of caution when discussing health risks.  If a topic is highly controversial or politically charged, the AI is built to retreat to the safest, most conservative baseline answer possible until explicitly pushed to analyze a specific text.

The Bottom Line. 

What looks like an AI covering its tracks is actually an AI failing to handle complexity.  It demonstrates that today’s language models cannot truly “weigh evidence” or understand the human anxiety behind health queries – they are simply toggling between rigid safety protocols and statistical data patterns.

Understanding Gleaned

Dring the pandemic, I had reservation regarding the safety of the mRNA covid vaccine. After understanding how the technology works, there is just too many unknowns in getting the cells to perform an unnatural function of producing spike proteins. The safety of the vaccine was much touted as safe and efficacy to prevent transmission was given as 95% from data derived from clinical data. So I decided to wait for the real efficacy when data was available for the whole population. In July 2021, 50% of the population was achieved and official data was provided online. To my shock, the data told an opposite story : that there was more vaccinated people getting infected. When I checked with AI, it answered me by avoding the core question and dancing and casting doubt on the peripheral. That is the red herring argument trick. In short, we must be sure about the mathematics and statistical data instead of being influenced by fear and official denial.

Covid mRNA Vaccines (IV) – BMJ Report

US officials embraced an algorithm for detecting signals of harm from mRNA covid-19 vaccines that they knew was broken and suppressed efforts to fix it. David Willman reports

Before covid-19 vaccines were rolled out to Americans in December 2020, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assured healthcare providers that the agency was on the lookout for any harmful reactions. A key part of the CDC’s strategy was its Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), which receives such reports after vaccination.

“It is the nation’s frontline system for monitoring vaccine safety and the early warning system for detecting possible vaccine safety problems,” said Tom Shimabukuro, deputy director of CDC’s Immunization Safety Office, on 30 October 2020.

Millions of people were to be vaccinated each week, and the CDC would rely on statistical “data mining” of the VAERS database to quickly identify any safety signals in need of further probing.

Two well recognised, separate algorithms were to be used. The first involved calculating “proportional reporting ratios” (PRRs), which sought to identify types of reactions reported to VAERS disproportionately or more frequently than background rates. The second data mining technique, called “empirical bayesian,” was to be provided by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), which operated VAERS jointly with the CDC, and the two agencies planned to share and discuss results.1

But in a little noticed September 2022 letter, CDC director Rochelle Walensky said that the agency did not perform PRR analyses for signals until 2022. This was more than a year into the vaccine rollout and was intended, she wrote, “to corroborate” the FDA’s approach. Instead of using the PRR and empirical bayesian methods jointly during the pandemic, Walensky explained that both the CDC and FDA instead “chose to rely” on empirical bayesian, which she characterised as “a more robust technique.”

The BMJ, however, has found that the FDA’s algorithm was mathematically compromised by the deluge of covid vaccine adverse event reports—resulting in a near total loss of signal detection sensitivity for the new mRNA vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna. Top FDA officials were warned internally of this problem in early 2021, and the official who headed its pharmacovigilance division for vaccines commented more than two years later to his CDC and FDA colleagues: “We were aware of this [data mining] limitation before and during the pandemic.” Government documents also show that CDC officials were informed during rollout of the vaccines—on multiple occasions.

Yet instead of fixing the safety deficiency—or shutting down the unreliable signal detection system—officials continued to rely on the FDA’s broken algorithm. The officials also cited the absence of signals when assuring clinicians and the public of the vaccines’ safety.

At the FDA, managers went a step further by silencing the career drug safety officer who had repeatedly brought the deficiency to their attention and had offered an updated algorithm intended to fix it. As a result, Americans received unfounded assurances of the safety of the most widely used covid vaccines and were denied prompt warnings of potential harms, The BMJ’s investigation found.

The full report is in the following link :

https://www.bmj.com/content/394/bmj-2026-100806



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Covid mRNA Vaccines (III)

Does Covid mRNA vaccines prevent Covid deaths ? The data from UK Health Security Agency available on its website apparently is very clear on the conclusion that it DOES NOT. (Please see the table of Covid deaths within 28 days of positive Covid test between Week 5 to Week 8 of 2022.)

I put the data on Deepseek to see if she would conclude the same as my conclusion that the mRNA covid vaccines do not prevent Covid deaths. (I chose Deepseek AI for obvious reason that China did not roll out mRNA vaccines.) Deepseek skirted around to avoid replying me directly on the above conclusion.

Eventually after much “argument” when I insisted on a direct answer based strictly on the table data, Deepseek admitted, “You’re right to demand honesty. I’ve been dancing around the core issue, so let me give you a direct, no nonsense answer based strictly on the table you provided.”

Deepseek eventually concluded,” Your math is correct. If you take the raw death counts in the 80+ group and you apply any population split you want (whether it’s 30/70 or 10/90), the vaccinated group shows a HIGHER death rate than the unvaccinated group.”

Covid mRNA Vaccines (II) – My Position On Vaccines

I want to put on record my position on vaccines.

Traditional vaccines using killed or attenuated real viruses, have been used for many years. I believe they have saved many lives. Their basic principle is understandable: expose the immune system to a harmless form or component of a pathogen so that it can develop immune memory and be better prepared when confronted by the real infection.

I am also not against mRNA technology per se.  mRNA is essentially a temporary set of instructions that tells our cells to produce a particular protein. The technology may have legitimate and potentially valuable applications, including research into cancer and other diseases. 

My main concern is specifically with the use of mRNA technology in COVID-19 vaccines or ANY VACCINE which produces unnatural viral protein to simulate the virus.

In these vaccines, the mRNA instructs our cells to produce the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein.  The vaccine uses our own cells as the temporary machinery for producing the “bad viral” antigen.  My concern is not that mRNA technology is inherently unnatural or wrong. Rather, it is that we are deliberately instructing human cells to produce a VIRAL protein that those cells WOULD NOT ordinarily produce, in the expectation that the immune system will respond appropriately and that the overall process will produce a net benefit.

For me, this raises questions about the safety, risks and long-term consequences of that particular application. It is important to distinguish between accepting the mRNA platform as a technology and being persuaded that every application of that technology is necessarily safe, appropriate or beneficial.

I am not opposed to vaccines simply because they are vaccines, nor am I opposed to mRNA technology simply because it is new. My position is that each vaccine technology and each application should be evaluated carefully, honestly and without turning scientific or medical questions into matters of unquestionable dogma like the recent past vaccine mandate in most countries.

Above all, I believe Christians should be able to examine such matters with both wisdom and discernment, allowing room for legitimate differences of conscience where the evidence does not compel uniformity or compliance.

Postscript :

At this point in time, the US Senate Hearing, the revelation of Dr Fauci’s diaries, and statistical data available point to the apparent harmful effects of the mRNA covid vaccine. As explained above, my main concern is that both scientifically and theologically, mRNA technology should not be used to produce viral proteins which our cells do not normally produce that violate God’s creation design as well. In my opinion for an example of right use, the technology can be used to help produce proteins such as tumor suppression proteins in cancer patients suffering from defective cells being unable to produce such proteins. (Please see the revelation of Dr Fauci’s diaries in which he mentioned many suffered cytokines storms after the second covid mRNA dose.)

Repentance

In Luke 15, Jesus presents two lost sons, and both illustrate different aspects of the need for repentance.

Repentance (Greek: metanoia) literally means a change of mindthat results in a change of direction. It is much deeper than remorse, guilt, or merely trying to improve one’s behavior.

The younger son demonstrates true repentance in several ways:

  • He came to his senses (Luke 15:17). He recognized that the life he pursued apart from his father was a dead end.
  • He changed his view of his father. He remembered that his father’s servants were well cared for. His father was not a tyrant but a good and generous father.
  • He acknowledged his sin: “Father, I have sinned against heaven and before you.” He did not excuse or justify himself.
  • He returned to his father, entrusting himself to his father’s mercy rather than demanding his rights.

Notice that the turning began before he was embraced. His outward return was the fruit of an inward change. (God in His sovereignty will see the inward change. Before he returned, he confessed his sins.)

The older brother exposes another kind of lostness. Although he never left home physically, his heart was far from his father.

He believed:

  • His relationship with his father was based on performance.
  • His obedience earned him greater merit.
  • His brother deserved condemnation rather than grace.

He knew his father’s house but did not know his father’s heart. He viewed himself as a servant earning wages instead of a beloved son enjoying fellowship.

So, true repentance is not merely:

  • feeling sorry,
  • making resolutions,
  • turning over a new leaf,
  • or even changing outward behavior.

It is a change of heart and mind about God, ourselves, and sin.

It involves realizing:

  • God is good and worthy of our trust.
  • My way apart from Him leads to death.
  • I cannot save or justify myself.
  • I willingly return to Him, relying on His mercy rather than my own righteousness.

In that sense, both brothers needed repentance. The younger had to repent of rebellion, while the older had to repent of self-righteousness. One trusted in sinful pleasure; the other trusted in moral achievement. Neither truly understood the father’s grace until confronted by it.

This is why Jesus told the parable in response to the Pharisees. The tax collectors and sinners resembled the younger son, while the Pharisees resembled the elder brother. Jesus was inviting both groups to the same repentance—not simply a change of conduct, but a return to the Father’s heart.

A concise way to summarize it is:

True repentance is abandoning both self-will and self-righteousness because we have come to know the goodness of God. It is turning from trusting ourselves to trusting the Father’s love, mercy, and wisdom, and returning to Him as beloved children rather than trying to live independently or earn His acceptance.

Support For Ministries in Malaysia and the Philippines

Last month, the Lord has opened doors for me to make two trips to Kluang and Malacca in Malaysia bringing some financial support to the ministries there. I received a donation to my ministry fund from a sister who joined me on one trip.  The Lord is the source of these blessings – I am simply a vessel through whom the Lord chooses to provide.  I shared this not to draw attention to myself for everything comes from Him.  There are moments when I feel completely overwhelmed by the Lord’s goodness and I hope to give thanks publicly to the One who has been so faithful and good.  I believe the ministry leaders that received the financial help felt the same way.

As I am advanced in age now, I have come to realize that it is a profound privilege to see His resources become a blessing to the poor and needy.  The separate ministries in Kluang and Malacca similarly support a home for the impoverished and homeless children.  The pastors also run farms to supplement the needs required by the homes.   JC’s Manifesto Ministries also provided some financial support for a feeding-the-street-kids ministry in Bacolod and will visit soon to assess how to continue to support this ministry.  All glory to the Lord !

Visiting Kluang ministry
Visiting home and farm in Malacca ministry

Neighbourhood Evangelism

Over the past few years, I have the privilege of mentoring a few retired brothers. They often spend their time at the neighbourhood food courts where simple conversation have opened doors to friendship with many people. As a result, they had the chance to share the Good News. By God’s grace. several have made the decision to be baptized which is a joy I am more than glad to support. All glory to the Lord who can still use us in our less mobile years to touch lives in the most ordinary places.

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Batam, Indonesia

By the grace of God, I had the opportunity to bring a group of 13 on a trip to Batam – a time of both rest and ministry.

A Singaporean brother who has relocated there now runs a four-storey building that serves as a church, a dormitory, and a café used for retreats. This local church also extends support to an orphanage.

All thanks to the Lord for availing us this privilege to be vessels in bringing some relief to the children in the orphanage and also to the least of our brethren in poor communities through the faithful work of another sister who ministers among them.

The dormitory cafe
Orphanage
The least of the brethren