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Pareto Principle

In the Bible, we read of how the judges and other heroes of faith gathered information, considered the possibilities, weighed the information, considered the trade-offs and opportunity costs, and then carefully made their decisions.

As we seek God’s kingdom and His righteousness first, many things will be given to us including wisdom which He will give generously when we ask. Matt 6:33; James 1:5.

Today, by the grace of God, I see some proven wisdom principles as the common grace of God and they are easily articulated and shared. I believe the Pareto Principle is one such wisdom principle which we will do well to adhere by doing first things first.

The Pareto Principle, also known as the 80–20 rule, states that approximately 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. Or more easily understood is that 20% of the causes produces 80% of the results.

The management consultant Joseph Duran popularized this principle and attributed it to an Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto.

This principle can be applied to many sciences and even many facets of life.

As a student, I studied only the 20% of the topics of each subject which are really important and true to form, 80% of the exam questions came from these 20% topics.

Later when I worked as a sales representative, I concentrated my sales effort on the 20% of the customer base which gave the company 80% of the sales and I consistently met or exceeded the job expectation.

Even in my marital relationship, I always remember to do those 20% most important stuff which will greatly please my spouse 80% of the time.

By doing the first things first, I will have sufficient time to perform most critical tasks without being overwhelmed or burned out.

I realized that I consistently met or exceeded the expectations through adhering to the Pareto Principle without having the pressure and consequent stress to excel to the very top.

When I graduated with second class honours (upper division), I was awarded one of the most prestigious postgraduate scholarship without being denied such opportunity by those who obtained first class honours.

When I started my career in sales, I did relatively well and by the age of 29, I was made the general manager of a branch office of a USD 1 billion Spanish conglomerate in Asia.

By adhering to the Pareto Principle for all tasks and decisions, we will have proper time management to perform most without the need to sacrifice other important facets of life.

Predictably Irrational Behavior

You will notice that many will rush to buy their residential properties or cars during the good economic times and end up driving the prices exorbitantly high.

But when there is an economic recession, you will find prices so depressed and yet there is hardly any buyer.

There were 5 economic recessions in 1985, 1991, 1997, 2001 and 2008 in the last 25 years averaging one recession every 5 to 7 years. Should not one buy his first residential private property or car at the next downturn to take advantage of lower prices, saving more and taking a lower loan mortgage ?

I have seen this predictably irrational behavior for the last 25 years of many people buying their properties at the peak.

Perhaps they buy because of the confidence of holding on to jobs during good economic times. But the mortgage loans taken are usually of 25 to 30 years’ duration. They will still face the possibility of losing their jobs in the next downturn while the principal sum of their mortgage loan is relatively untouched because the first few years of mortgage installments go to paying interest.

I believe the main reason for such predictably irrational behavior is more of greed or covetousness – the fear of losing out on good deals to others.

I started my career in 1985 and many of my peers were able to save enough to buy their first residential private property in 1994 after saving up the initial deposit of 20% or more. Most bought their first property between 1993 to 1996 at the height of the property boom taking a 25 year mortgage loan.

I decided to wait till the next downturn which happened in 1997. Because I waited out, while my peers would be paying on interest for their mortgage, I would be saving up more money.

So when the prices had gone down by 30 to 50% in 2001, I was able to purchase my residential property without taking any mortgage loan as I had saved up to 50% of the peak price in 1996.

While my peers continued to worry over their mortgage loan over the entire repayment period of 25 to 30 years, I have one less worry.

Should the private property prices stay high and I really miss the chance of owning a private residential property, I will not lose any sleep because I am more than content to have just a roof over my head in public housing.

Contentment indeed brings great gain while covetousness only bring anxiety as illustrated in the above example.

Will China Suffer A Hard Landing ?

If the incredible cement usage in China over 3 years is true, it is impossible to replicate the same usage over the next few years to generate the same growth rate. Compounding the problem is the fact that there is a lot of wasteful construction of ghost towns and cities which will haunt the whole economy very soon. What is more worrisome is the fact that the construction industry probably hire 200 to 300 million migrant workers and it will be impossible to seek job re-structuring for this big pool of employment should the construction industry go into deep depression.

Update: Perhaps this will be a good reason to accelerate the construction of One Belt One Road project to absorb the over-capacity and capital. But it will pose a grave threat to the current shipping route via the Straits of Malacca.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/24/how-china-used-more-cement-in-3-years-than-the-u-s-did-in-the-entire-20th-century/

Can A Christian Lose His Or Her Salvation ?

The debate on the eternal security of a Christian and the possibility of a Christian losing his or her salvation has never been conclusive for clear Scriptural references have been put forth in support of both position. A better re-phrased question to ask is : How is a Christian justified by faith ?

I believe the crux lies in repentance. Repentance and saving faith are two sides of the same coin. Though the Greek word for repentance, metanoia, means a change of mind, the Bible is very clear that repentance involves fruit or deed in line with it. Luke 3:8-14; Acts 26:20; Acts 3:19. In Acts 2:38, we are told to repent and be baptized in the name of our Lord Jesus for the forgiveness of sins, and then to receive the Holy Spirit.

So a true believer changes his mind from rejection of Jesus Christ into full acceptance of Him as his personal Savior and Lord. And a true change of mind will result in a changed life. 2 Cor 5:17; Gal 5:19-23; James 2:14-26.

But even this repentance is the work of God in our lives starting from disbelief changing into knowledge with God pulling us and then to wisdom when He opens our eyes. Eventually convicting us to make that decisive response of following Jesus as our Savior and Lord.

A Christian is not pre-disposed to sin anymore. Though he sins occasionally due to temporary weakness or strong temptation, his life is overall walking right with God. A good example is King David. 1 Kings 15:5 clearly explained that : For David had done what was right in the eyes of the Lord and had not failed to keep any of the Lord’s commands all the days of his life—except in the case of Uriah the Hittite. When his sin was pointed out, his immediate response was to realize his sin, feel godly sorrow and seek God’s forgiveness. That is the overall life of a regenerate believer. (For full clarity, read the whole epistle of 1 John.)

An unregenerate believer or a professing believer is one who is overall indifferent to sin. You will notice his chronic sinful behavior. You will notice most, if not all, his decisions are worldly and not according to the instruction in the Bible.

(1 Cor 6:9-10. Or do you not know that wrongdoers will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral nor idolaters nor adulterers nor men who have sex with men nor thieves nor the greedy nor drunkards nor slanderers nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God.)

Another good example is Lot. Though he lived in Sodom and seemed to compromise at times, and even hesitated to leave Sodom before it was destroyed, the Bible told us in 2 Pet 2:8 that he was tormented by the lawless deeds he saw in the city.

A regenerate believer will be distressed by sin. That is why the hyper grace gospel is so dangerous. From the onset, the false gospel downplays sin altogether and actually trivializes the tremendous perfect sacrifice of Christ our Lord for the atonement of sins. Heb 10:26-29.

A true believer is a new creation and he will love and obey the commandments of God as the fruit in line with repentance.

Gal 6:15 For neither circumcision counts for anything, nor uncircumcision, but a new creation.

1 Cor 7:19. For neither circumcision counts for anything nor uncircumcision, but keeping the commandments of God.

There is no question over the clear distinction between regenerate and unregenerate believers. That leave only this last doubt. Can a regenerate believer ever walk out of faith himself by returning back to a life of sin again ?

Let’s look at the parable of the prodigal son for a possible insight. The younger son came to his senses acknowledging his sin and repented. He went back with so much gratitude for the unconditional love of his father that he was prepared to start over without the privileges of son-ship. Would he betray the trust of his father a second time and return back to the far country of reckless living again if his repentance was unequivocal ?

The Letter And The Spirit (Intent) Of The Law And Sacraments

Matt 23: 23-24

“Woe to you, teachers of the law and Pharisees, you hypocrites! You give a tenth of your spices—mint, dill and cumin. But you have neglected the more important matters of the law—justice, mercy and faithfulness. You should have practiced the latter, without neglecting the former. You blind guides! You strain out a gnat but swallow a camel.”

The Pharisees followed the law to the letter meticulously. Yet when they come to the more important aspects of the law in showing justice, mercy and faithfulness to others, they were indifferent.

They were meticulous in straining out the gnat in their tea through their teeth but they were simply indifferent to swallowing the camel. That was the analogy par excellence given by our Lord.

The Lord did not condemn them for practising the law to the letter but reprimanded them for ignoring the more important spirit (or intent) of the law.

Likewise today, there are many churches who practice their tradition and sacraments to the letter without truly understanding the spirit or intent of them.

They will insist that water baptism has to be immersion and not sprinkling; or the Lord’s Supper has to be served with unleavened bread and real wine.

In the parable of the Good Samaritan, the lawyer wanted to put Jesus to the test and asked what he should do to inherit eternal life. And he answered the question himself by stating the summary of the law in the 2 greatest commandments.

After Jesus told the parable of the Good Samaritan, He wanted the lawyer to answer for himself who was the true neighbour, or who was truly obeying the law to the spirit.

The priest and the Levite in the parable followed the law to the letter by avoiding a possible dead person while the Samaritan broke everything in the law to the letter. Yet the lawyer himself ascertained that the Samaritan was truly the neighbour by obeying the law to the spirit.

Similarity Of False Prophets In Jeremiah’s Days And Hyper Grace Teachers Today

Jer 23: 16-17 NLT

This is what the Lord of Heaven’s Armies says to his people: “Do not listen to these prophets when they prophesy to you, filling you with FUTILE HOPES. They are MAKING UP everything they say. They do not speak for the Lord! They keep saying to those who DESPISE MY WORD, ‘Don’t worry! The Lord says you will have peace!’ And to those who stubbornly follow their own desires, they say, ‘No harm will come your way!’

Jeremiah, best known as the weeping prophet, started his ministry around 627 BC during the reign of Josiah and continued to the eleventh year of Zedekiah. He prophesied during the last forty years of Judah and he witnessed the fall of Jerusalem and the deportation of Jews to Babylon.

His mission was to speak against the apostasy of his days and the coming judgment. His messages were so unwelcome that he faced so much persecution from both kings and common folk. The people even accused him of being a traitor for only bringing messages of reproof, warning and judgment. The people continued in their normalcy bias ways preferring to hear the feel good messages of the false prophets.

How ironic that the same is happening today again !

Against the backdrop of the warning of our Lord Jesus and the apostles to guard against spiritual apostasy, inordinate fear of calamities and persecution in the last days, most are so indifferent like in the days of Noah. They do not eagerly expect the return of Him and fall prey easily to the seducing feel good messages of hyper-grace teachers in indulging in dissipation.

Notice how similar are the seducing feel good messages of the hyper-grace teachers today with the messages of the false prophets in Jeremiah’s days telling them not to worry about the admonishing words and warnings of Jesus and that no harm will come their way when they follow their carnal desires as these are promises to be claimed from God.

Similarity of Ancient Day Pharisees And Modern Day Hyper Grace Teachers

Luke 16:13-18
“No one can serve two masters. Either you will hate the one and love the other, or you will be devoted to the one and despise the other. You cannot serve both God and money.” 14 The Pharisees, who loved money, heard all this and were sneering at Jesus. 15 He said to them, “You are the ones who justify yourselves in the eyes of others, but God knows your hearts. What people value highly is detestable in God’s sight. 16 “The Law and the Prophets were proclaimed until John. Since that time, the good news of the kingdom of God is being preached, and everyone is forcing their way into it. 17 It is easier for heaven and earth to disappear than for the least stroke of a pen to drop out of the Law. 18 “Anyone who divorces his wife and marries another woman commits adultery, and the man who marries a divorced woman commits adultery.

In the eyes of Jewish society then, the Pharisees were outwardly pious Jews who honoured God through their exemplary life in being blameless in keeping the Law. Yet inwardly they loved money. Though they justified well in the eyes of the Jewish society, God was not impressed at all knowing that they saw godliness as a way of gain.

So when Jesus taught that no one can serve both God and Money, they sneered at Him. These Pharisees could profess love for God outwardly but inwardly their real god was Money.

Jesus went on to teach that the old covenant was from Moses to John the Baptist and the new covenant had begun. And everyone had to force his way into the kingdom through jumping over the obstacles set up by the Pharisees. John the Baptist’s message of repentance centered on repentance from the sins of cheating and extortion originating from love of money and believers had to literally force their way in overcoming their covetous or greedy tendency to contentment. Luke 3:7-14.

But with the advent of the new covenant, it does not mean the moral Law or values will be discarded. So Jesus taught that it is easier for heaven and earth to disappear than for the least stroke of a pen to drop out the Law.

I believe our Lord mentioned the law of marriage to expose the spiritual adultery of the Pharisees in believing they could have the best of both worlds. It is wishful thinking that they could worship both God and Money.

How similar are the modern day hyper grace false teachers with the Pharisees of old, though they preached two opposite extreme variants of the true gospel !

1. They can be so spiritual on the outside but inwardly they love money.
2. They see godliness as a way of gain. They preach a message of piety in tithing and giving, though one went further to stoke the covetousness of their followers through miracle seed teaching.
3. They trivialize or discard the law in order to justify covetousness.

Individual And Corporate Christian Response Are Not Necessarily The Same

Going by the whole counsel of the Word of God on individual and corporate responses, they seem to be diametrically opposite.

While individually, we should not gloat over the demise of our enemies. Prov 24:17-18. Corporately we are told to rejoice over the demise of a corporate enemy. Rev 18:17-20.

Take another example. The Ten Commandments forbid murder. But corporately, we still join the army to protect our nation against aggression and we have to kill in defense. We may have to take up whatever means to protect our communities in the face of persecution, even armed defense if necessary.

In the first few centuries during Roman times when the Christians were persecuted, they lived in underground cities. The origin of these cities were unknown but the early century Christians dug further most of the levels in these cities. Under these cities was a vast network of tunnels, connecting each home in the area to the city. When the area came under attack, families would flee to their basements, rush through the dark tunnels, and gather at the basement city.

“Unwary (enemy) soldiers could be caught in the many traps laid throughout the labyrinthine corridors, such as stones which could be rolled to block doorways, and holes in the ceiling through which spears could be dropped. Invaders were further outwitted by the Christian builders who made their tunnels narrow, forcing their enemies to fight, and be picked off, one by one.” –

http://www.ancient-origins.net/ancient-places-europe/incredible-rock-houses-and-underground-cities-cappadocia-001394

That revealed how the early Christians defended themselves against enemy invaders.

Is The Calm Before The Storm Over ?

Is the 3 months’ calm before the storm, since the trigger in September 2015, over ?

Globally the bond bubble has grown by more than $20 trillion since 2008 of which the quality is largely junk. That is about 9 to 10 times larger than the US subprime housing hole of USD 2.5 trillion.

Will the distressed 4 largest economic bloc continue to print money to resuscitate the system in excess of USD 20 trillion and create an even bigger monster bubble in a few years’ time ?

Or has the end-game begun ?

The following article explains well the cause of the coming economic flood.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/bursting-bond-bubble-has-begun

Exalting Christ In Words But Not In Deeds Is Hypocrisy

A decade and a half ago when I was in the corporate world, my good friend in the IT industry hired a general manager to manage his business. He would speak so well of my friend in front of business associates every time. It almost seemed to the listeners that he hero-worshipped my friend. One evening when we were having drinks in a pub, he got drunk and started cursing my friend to my shocking surprise.

I was upset with his hypocritical attitude that I disclosed everything to my friend. I was even more surprised that my friend continued to keep him in employment. Not because he performed well but that he admitted he liked his praises in front of business associates !

It is clear to me that it is definitely possible to praise someone all the time for personal gain but it is not true to his heart. In real life drama, such hypocrisy is often played out among the rich descendants hoping to have a share of the inheritance from the patriarch.

This is what our Lord Jesus said in Matt 15:8-9 concerning this possible hypocritical attitude :
“This people honors me with their lips, but their heart is far from me; in vain do they worship me, teaching as doctrines the commandments of men.”

Similarly today, do not be surprised that the hyper grace false teachers continually give Christ exalting messages and feel good messages. But their hearts are far away from Jesus. It is possible to praise and exalt Jesus in words all the time but it will be very difficult to conceal their hypocrisy in deeds.

Matt 7: 15-16
“Beware of false prophets, who come to you in sheep’s clothing but inwardly are ravenous wolves. You will recognize them by their fruits…”

Our Lord mentioned this fruit or the lack of it to know if one is with Him or otherwise. So watch for the fruit of the false prophets or teachers.

John 14:21,23; 12:47-48
“Whoever has my commandments and keeps them, he it is who loves me…Whoever does not love me does not keep my words…If anyone hears my words and does not keep them, I do not judge him; for I did not come to judge the world but to save the world. The one who rejects me and does not receive my words has a judge; the word that I have spoken will judge him on the last day.”

So how can the hyper grace false teacher really love Jesus when they brush aside all the clear teachings of Jesus and worse still, twist them to mean the opposite of what He taught or trivialize them ? There is also no intention to follow Him as a disciple on His terms given so clearly in Luke 9:23-26 and Luke 14:25-33. Much less to participate in the suffering of Christ !

It is also interesting to note from the above story of mine that one can ignore all wrongdoing as long as he hears flattering words. Similarly the hyper grace believers may be so side blinded by all the feel good messages that speak to their carnal desires that they fail to note the clear hypocrisy of the false teachers.

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