A very well written article by a financial columnist of South China Morning Post, Mr Jake Van Der Kamp, explaining the mechanics of a ponzi scheme economy of China.
Using example of steel production as representative of all manufacturing industries, the article explained this way :
“Why is so much steel needed?
Simple. It is needed to build more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways and bridges so that more ships can be built to carry more iron ore to more ports and thence along more rails and bridges to more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways …
What we have here, in short, is a giant Ponzi scheme. In a Ponzi scheme you pay out the winnings of the first entrants with what others later pay into it.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses.
In this case you justify production with demand based purely on more production. As long as you keep pushing production up everything looks fine. At its peak in 2014 China turned out 30 times more cement than the United States, and the latest production figures are only a smidgen less than 2014’s.
Command systems may be good at deciding where to direct economic effort in wartime but they are hopeless in peacetime at deciding when to stop and do something else.
They just keep going down the same old track and then what you get is economic cancer, uncontrollable growth.”
The main takeaway is this: your skills, knowledge and social capital will emerge unscathed on the other side of the re-set wormhole. Land and real property you own free and clear (no debt) is likely to remain in your possession, as long as you can pay soaring taxes/junk fees during the crisis phase. Your financial assets held in centrally controlled institutions will not make it through unscathed; they are simply too easy for central authorities to expropriate.
In my book, The Coming Economic Flood, I stated that I finally understood the message God has given me. When God finally judges the Babylonian financial system, all 3 groups – the kings of the earth, merchants and those who make their living by sea – will weep together. At this time, the kings of the earth, the governments, are still able to keep the system afloat by massive quantitative easing. And that averted the collapse in Sep 2015 when stock markets collapsed spectacularly around the world, especially in China. It is amazing to note that a USD 2.5 trillion debt bubble burst in US housing loan market nearly caused the global collapse in 2008 and yet a USD 11 trillion stock market drop in Sep 2015 did not cause anything near the contagion seen in late 2008.
We have noticed that the financial crises happened 7 years apart for the past few decades. God has judged the symbol of Babylon (WTC) in Sep 2001 and the system partially in Sep 2008 and Sep 2015. Thanks be to God for His patience and long-suffering that He has given further time for His people to come out of Babylon. Will the collapse come by Sep 2022 ? Or was Sep 2015 actually the last trigger ?
The above article made these very interesting comments :
“One of the most discomforting aspects of Neil Howe and William Strauss’ seminal work on generational cycles, The Fourth Turning (1997), is the fact that as far as American history is concerned, they all climax and end with massive wars.
To be more specific, the first “fourth turning” in American history culminated with the Revolutionary War (1775-1783), the second culminated with the Civil War (1861-1865), while the third ended with the bloodiest war in world history, World War II (1939-1945). The number of years between the end of the Revolutionary War and the start of the Civil War was 78 years, and the number of years between the end of the Civil War and the start of World War II was 74 years (76 years if you use America’s entry into the war as your starting date). Therefore, if Howe & Strauss’ theory holds any water, and I think it does, we’re due for a major conflict somewhere around 75 years from the end of World War II. That brings us to 2020.
The more I look around, the more signs appear everywhere that the world is headed into another major conflict. From an unnecessary resurgence of a Cold War with Russia, to increased tensions in the South China Sea and complete chaos and destruction in the Middle East, the world is a gigantic tinderbox. All it will take to transform these already existing conflict zones into a major conflagration is another severe global economic downturn, something I fully expect to happen within the next 1-2 years. Frighteningly, this puts on a perfect collision course with the 2020 area…”
Looking at the terribly flawed monetary policies of all major economies which have already crossed over the threshold of returning into balance, it will take a miracle to avert the inevitable collapse. The question is not “if” but “when”. As God’s people, we will come out of Babylon, prepare and rejoice when it happens. Rev 18:20; Rev 19:1-2.
The growth of the current global economy is fueled by debt and it is definitely not sustainable. The current banking system offers so many personal loans to satisfy consumers to be able to afford the desired standard of living. Such crippling debt enslaves the average modern man. God hates this usury system because it enslaves people with crippling debt. When God led the Israelites out of Egypt, He gave them repeated warnings about the danger of usury, which is borrowing money with an interest premium. (For further reading, you can refer to Ex 22:25; Lev 25:35-37; Deut 23:19). Obviously knowing the enslaving powers of debt, God mandated regular debt relief programs in the years of release (7 years apart) and the Jubilee Year (Deut 15:1-2). These institutions were designed to prevent debt from overwhelming and enslaving the Israelite population. – extracted from the book, The Coming Economic Flood.
You will notice that the major banking or economic crisis occurred 7 years apart since 1973 to 2015 which is surely no coincidence. I see God’s hand in these events for God will finally destroy Babylon and all her wealth in one hour.
1973 Oil Embargo. 45% loss in stock market.
1980 Savings and Loans crisis.
1987 Black October Monday stock market crash.
1994 Bond massacre.
2001 Sep Dot com bust. The judgment on symbol of Babylon – WTC.
2008 Sep The Great Recession. The judgment on Babylon. Near collapse.
2015 Sep The USD 11 trillion global market crash. Another Babylon warning.
When God finally judges Babylon mentioned in Rev 18, all 3 groups will weep – the kings of the earth, merchants and those who make their living by the sea. Babylon mentioned is unmistakably the alliance of governments (kings of the earth), all global MNCs and all SME enterprises (the merchants), and the global shipping lines and ports cum financial centers (those who make their living by the sea) forming a global supply chain and financial system engaged in globalised trade. All have grown rich as a result of this alliance. This is the current capitalism we know today.
I believe God is gracious and patient hoping to give more time to His people to come out of Babylon. The governments have continued to prop up the system with quantitative easing reaching incredibly high debt level now. And they will continue to print USD 3 to 4 trillion or more annually till it eventually collapses.
Again in Sep 2015 with global markets crashing and losing USD 11 trillion worldwide without any contagion due to quick quantitative easing measures to contain, how long can the system continue with the unsustainable exponential exploding debt fuelled measures ?
In the parable of the wicked tenants, after 3 failed attempts to collect from the tenants, the landowner eventually came and destroy the tenants. I was given the first vision in Sep 2001 and eventually I understood the whole message in early 2013. So in a parallel, with 3 consecutive warnings in Sep 2001, Sep 2008 and Sep 2015, will the global financial system eventually collapse by the next global crisis ?
Postscript (1st June 2020) : By September 2019, God impressed upon me that the next economic crisis may be way before Sep 2022. And from Oct to Dec 2019, I wrote several warning posts on my facebook timeline. And I believed then the catalyst for the coming crisis might not be the deterioration of the financial situation but rather a calamity such as a massive earthquake hitting a major financial city or a global pestilence.
Leaving aside the sure fulfillment of biblical prophecy concerning the judgment on Babylon, the political and financial system we know today as mentioned in Rev 18, let’s be sober to look at the hard economic facts today. There is simply an exponential explosion of sovereign debt without the accompanying industrial expansion.
1. Replacing stagnant real growth and income (and thus taxes) with debt.
2. Replacing investment in real-world productivity with speculation (i.e. financialization)
3. Replacing “everyone must have skin in the game” free-market capitalism with protected, privileged Elites crony capitalism in which the few benefit at the expense of the many.
4. Replacing local, decentralized democracy and ownership with central planning.
5. Using “extend and pretend” financial trickery to mask insolvency, impaired assets/ collateral and non-performing loans rather than address the debt overhang directly via write-downs and liquidations of impaired assets.
Fasten your seat belt. The ride has not ended with Brexit. More of the same are coming – Grexit, Departugal. Italeave. Fruxxx. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovlong. Latervia. Byegium.
As this irresponsible fiscal madness has crossed over the threshold of keeping the budget deficits of all major blocs under control, the system will implode at some point in time.
Jesus our Lord mentioned the following signs which will precede His coming in Matt 24:
Wars and rumors of wars.
Persecution leading to many falling away.
Many false prophets leading many astray.
Lawlessness will increase.
The love of many will grow cold.
Yet these are merely the signs of the beginning of the birth pains.
Throughout the history of the last 2000 years or more since Jesus ascended to heaven, such signs have been observed anyway. So how can we be certain we are staring at the beginning of the birth pains ?
Can exponentially increased instances of these signs be considered conclusive proof ?
Firstly, it is interesting to ponder why Jesus our Lord called the beginning of the end times as birth pains. At the onset of labor in child birth, pain caused by uterine contractions will intensify in magnitude till the baby is born. The intensification of labor pain is a good illustration of the sudden escalation or exponential occurrence of calamitous events.
Secondly, the sudden-ness of the escalation of an event in an exponential fashion seems to mirror the sudden-ness of His coming that our Lord Jesus had talked about that many will still be caught unawares. Mark 13:35-37; Luke 21:34-35; 1 Thess 5:3; Prov 29:1.
The exponential function is lingering at the bottom for the most part of the time and then suddenly it shoots up to the top. That sudden turn will usually catch many unawares because for the most part, the event has remained dormant.
For the vision is yet for the appointed time;
It hastens toward the goal and it will not fail.
Though it tarries, wait for it;
For it will certainly come, it will not delay.
Dr Albert Bartlett was the president of the American Association of Physics Teachers in 1978. In his seminal presentation, “Arithmetic, Population and Energy”, he mentioned this famous phrase “The greatest shortcoming of the human race is the inability to understand the exponential function”.
In his lecture, he was trying to explain that within a finite system, modest annual growth at a certain percentage cannot continue indefinitely. In the example of oil usage, the human race may be caught unawares when modest annual growth of the use of critical resources like oil due to population growth can result in sudden escalation of depletion in a relatively short period of time. The logic is simple and irrefutable. And when this critical stage of depletion of oil happens, for example, we will face an apocalypse.
Today, we face this scenario of exponential depletion of all critical resources.
And also the exponential increase of fiat monetary supply without corresponding industrial productivity expansion will result in a collapse. We have seen the increase way past the inflexion point of the exponential curve.
Get ready for the fulfilment of the judgment of wealth mentioned in Rev 18 when the kings of the earth (governments), merchants (global MNCs and all SMEs) and those who make their living by the sea (major seaports cum financial centres) will weep when God judges.
– extracted from my book, The Coming Economic Flood.
If the incredible cement usage in China over 3 years is true, it is impossible to replicate the same usage over the next few years to generate the same growth rate. Compounding the problem is the fact that there is a lot of wasteful construction of ghost towns and cities which will haunt the whole economy very soon. What is more worrisome is the fact that the construction industry probably hire 200 to 300 million migrant workers and it will be impossible to seek job re-structuring for this big pool of employment should the construction industry go into deep depression.
Update: Perhaps this will be a good reason to accelerate the construction of One Belt One Road project to absorb the over-capacity and capital. But it will pose a grave threat to the current shipping route via the Straits of Malacca.
Yes, something did happen in the global financial system in September 2015.
USD 11 trillion was wiped out in markets globally in late Aug and Sep 2015. Global trade has gone down by 8.4% which is unprecedented and global GDP has shrunk by 3.4% so far this year according to HSBC.
The figures are saying the global recession is under way. We read of imploding hedge funds, bond default of commodity and energy companies, imploding large retailers, the economic hardship of emerging economies due to appreciating US dollar, missing profit projection of global companies and their subsequent retrenchment between 10 to 20% of their workforce, the new recession under way in Japan and the tremendous economic hardship faced by several European countries right now with no relief in sight.
Yet it seems that there is a calm before the storm.
Is God being patient again waiting for His people to come out of Babylon ?